Required parameters for modelling heterogeneous geographically dispersed manufacturing systems

COVID-19 and global crises/events are driving governments to rethink their national manufacturing strategies. The drastic change of societal conditions has exposed our reliance on a constrained set of production practices. Furthermore, the future manufacturing landscape indicates - supply chain crises, trade agreements and natural disasters - a high level of volatility which requires a response that is far from being achieved. While these emergent challenges have called the efficacy of established practices into question, new manufacturing technologies, such as Additive Manufacturing (AM), present the capability to provide a solution. One proposal is agent-based brokering of AM which could be a method for tackling local, regional, national, and international production needs. However, to achieve the reality of brokered AM, it is imperative that the diversity of AM capability is considered. Diversity that existing homogeneous modelling of AM and manufacturing systems rarely consider or capture. This paper conceptualizes the reality of AM systems and elucidates parameters that are necessary for successful modelling and subsequent co-ordination. Having presented the required parameters the paper continues to discuss requisite levels of ion, suitable performance metrics and the role of humans in agent-based manufacturing systems.

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States (preprint)

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.

D614G Spike Variant Does Not Alter IgG, IgM, or IgA Spike Seroassay Performance (preprint)

Emergence of a new variant of spike protein (D614G) with increased infectivity and transmissibility has prompted many to analyze the potential role of this variant in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. When a new variant emerges, there is a concern regarding whether an individual exposed to one variant of a virus will have cross-reactive immune memory to the second variant. Accordingly, we analyzed the serologic reactivity of D614 (original) and G614 variant spike proteins. We found that antibodies from a high-incidence population in New York City reacted both toward the original D614 spike and the G614 spike variant. These data suggest that patients who have been exposed to either SARS-CoV-2 variant have humoral immunity that can respond against both variants. This is an important finding both for SARS-CoV-2 disease biology and for potential antibody-based therapeutics.

Serologic cross-reactivity of SARS-CoV-2 with endemic and seasonal Betacoronaviruses (preprint)

In order to properly understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection and development of humoral immunity, researchers have evaluated the presence of serum antibodies of people worldwide experiencing the pandemic. These studies rely on the use of recombinant proteins from the viral genome in order to identify serum antibodies that recognize SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. Here, we discuss the cross-reactivity potential of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies with the full spike proteins of four other Betacoronaviruses that cause disease in humans, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), we detected the potential cross-reactivity of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 towards the four other coronaviruses, with the strongest cross-recognition between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS /MERS-CoV antibodies, as expected based on sequence homology of their respective spike proteins. Further analysis of cross-reactivity could provide informative data that could lead to intelligently designed pan-coronavirus therapeutics or vaccines.

Standardization of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for serosurveys of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic using clinical and at-home blood sampling (preprint)

The extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection throughout the United States population is currently unknown. High quality serology is a key tool to understanding the spread of infection, immunity against the virus, and correlates of protection. Limited validation and testing of serology assays used for serosurveys can lead to unreliable or misleading data, and clinical testing using such unvalidated assays can lead to medically costly diagnostic errors and improperly informed public health decisions. Estimating prevalence and clinical decision making is highly dependent on specificity. Here, we present an optimized ELISA-based serology protocol from antigen production to data analysis. This protocol defines thresholds for IgG and IgM for determination of seropositivity with estimated specificity well above 99%. Validation was performed using both traditionally collected serum and dried blood on mail-in blood sampling kits, using archival (pre-2019) negative controls and known PCR-diagnosed positive patient controls. Minimal cross-reactivity was observed for the spike proteins of MERS, SARS1, OC43 and HKU1 viruses and no cross reactivity was observed with anti-influenza A H1N1 HAI titer during validation. This strategy is highly specific and is designed to provide good estimates of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in a population, providing specific and reliable data from serosurveys and clinical testing which can be used to better evaluate and understand SARS-CoV-2 immunity and correlates of protection.